TAIWANESE STRATEGY

SHOULD YOU EVER REFUSE A WINNING TILE?

No — never. Holding a concealed hand for the self-draw jackpot instead of taking the win costs you about 0.11 points every single hand, our research shows.

The temptation is real arithmetic: a concealed self-draw (門清自摸) is 3 tai collected from all three opponents, while the same hand won off a discard is 1 tai from one payer — roughly a nine-fold difference on the win itself. So we built a player who refuses every discard win while concealed and waits for the wall.

The jackpots do come: the holdout converts a third of its wins by self-draw against a quarter for normal play. They just never repay the wins it turned down — its overall win share drops from 54% to 46%, and every passed tile hands the table another turn to beat it. The lesson generalises: in a floorless race, a win in the hand beats a jackpot in the wall.

• ✓ A winning tile appears — take it, whatever your hand was hoping for
• ✗ NOT an excuse to claim build tiles freely: this is about the WIN, not about opening your hand early

Hé Fēn Strategy Lab: 100,000 seeded four-seat hands, production engine and AI, standard 台 scoring (base 3 / 1 per tai). Seat-alternated A/B twins — two seats refuse discard wins while concealed, two play normally — scored as net settlement points per seat-hand; the gap is 25 standard errors wide (p≪0.01).

IS CLAIMING A CHOW REALLY A TAX?

Neither tax nor treasure: across 100,000 hands, a player who never claims a chow finishes dead level with one who claims freely — the game's most agonised-over call is a wash.

The folk wisdom says the cheapest call is secretly the dearest: claiming a chow opens your hand, kills the concealed tai and downgrades the treble self-draw. Our twin who swore off chows entirely should therefore have finished richer.

It didn't — win rates 50.0% vs 50.0%, net points within noise of zero. The tempo a claim buys almost exactly pays for the concealment it sells, at least for an ordinary hand. So claim or don't claim on the merits of THIS hand — speed when the table is hot, purity when a flush or pong route is alive — and ignore anyone who tells you the chow call is always wrong.

Hé Fēn Strategy Lab: 100,000 seeded four-seat hands, production engine and AI, standard 台 scoring. Seat-alternated A/B twins (never-claims-chows vs default), net settlement points per seat-hand; z = −0.26 — no detectable effect.

IS A KONG WORTH DECLARING WITHOUT A BONUS LADDER?

Yes — kong play is worth about +0.04 points per hand even though standard tai pays no ladder for it, our research shows.

Standard 台 scoring gives a declared kong no points of its own — just a replacement draw, a shot at 槓上開花 (1 tai), and the concealed-pong tiers if you drew it yourself. Against that stand the risks the table warns you about: exposing information, and feeding a 搶槓 rob.

Measured head to head, the kongs win: the declaring twin takes 50.9% of wins to 49.2% and banks the difference. The free tile is simply bigger than the risks — an extra draw every time, in a game where draws are the whole race.

• ✓ You hold the fourth copy of your own pong — declare it
• ✗ NOT when the kong tile itself is your last safe discard against a visible big hand

Hé Fēn Strategy Lab: 100,000 seeded four-seat hands, production engine and AI, standard 台 scoring. Seat-alternated A/B twins (default vs never-kongs), net settlement points per seat-hand; z = 5.0 (p<0.01).

Prioritise multi-sided waits BEGINNER

Favour shapes that complete from multiple draws. A two-sided sequence (4-5 waiting on 3 or 6) can be finished by up to 8 tiles; an edge wait (1-2 waiting on 3) by at most 4. With FIVE sets to complete instead of four, taking the wider shape at every choice is worth even more here than in 13-tile games.

Clear isolated terminals and unpaired honors in the first few turns BEGINNER

A lone 1, 9, wind or dragon builds almost nothing: honors only ever become pongs, and terminals join only one sequence (1-2-3 or 7-8-9). Discard them early — they are also the safest tiles you will ever release, because nobody's hand is ready yet. The exception: hold your seat wind and the round wind an extra beat — their pong is a tai.

Never break a two-sided shape to keep a pair you don't need INTERMEDIATE

You need exactly one pair. With two or three pair candidates, count them: every pair beyond the second is two tiles doing half a job each. Break the extra pairs toward sequences — or, if pairs keep arriving, commit the other way and hunt 碰碰胡: All Pongs is 4 tai, and three concealed pongs add 2 more.

A chicken hand is a real weapon — win ugly when the table is dangerous BEGINNER

There is no floor: a hand worth zero tai (屁胡) still declares and still collects the base stake from the discarder. Early in a hand, or when an opponent's exposures look expensive, the fastest shapeless win is a perfectly sound play — it banks the base, ends their build, and passes the deal. Speed is never wasted here the way it is under minimum-score rules.

The self-draw triples everything — protect it near the end INTERMEDIATE

Winning off a discard collects base + tai from ONE player; a self-draw collects that amount from ALL THREE. And a concealed self-draw (門清自摸) is 3 tai by itself. A modest concealed hand that self-draws routinely outearns a flashier hand won by discard — so once you are ready and concealed, think twice before claiming a tile that merely arrives one turn sooner: the claim breaks concealment, downgrades 3 tai to 1, and cuts your collection from three payers to one.

平胡 pays 2 — but only won by discard, with an open two-sided wait INTERMEDIATE

All Sequences is the everyday 2-tai hand: five chows, a simple pair, no flowers, no honors, a two-sided wait, won off a discard. Strictly, a self-draw BREAKS it (the self-draw tai arrives instead) — some tables relax that, and the switch is in the settings. Know which way your table plays before you shape the ending: on the strict reading, a 平胡 hand actually prefers the ron.

A tight wait is a paid wait — reshape the ending when it costs nothing ADVANCED

The single-possibility waits — edge (1-2 needing 3), closed (4-6 needing 5), lone pair — each pay 1 tai; the comfortable two-sided wait pays nothing. When a late draw lets you choose the shape of your final wait at no loss of live tiles, take the paying one. When the choice costs real outs, take the wide wait: one extra tai is worth about one unit per payer, and an unwon hand is worth nothing.

The ready declarations are timed bets — 天聽 16, 地聽 8, and a locked hand ADVANCED

Two of the biggest tai in the game are DECLARATIONS, not tile patterns. Ready before your first discard is 天聽 (16 tai); ready within your first two discards, with no claims anywhere at the table, is 地聽 (8) — and both windows slam shut the moment anyone calls. The price: your hand LOCKS. You discard every draw untouched and can claim nothing but the win, so a declared wait you chose badly stays badly chosen forever. Declare on a wide, live wait and it is the best bet on the table; declare on a lone edge wait and you have volunteered to skip your own turns. One more instant win worth knowing exists: a single player completing FOUR kongs ends the hand on the spot (四槓牌, 8 tai — and no self-draw tai on top), and seven flowers let you rob the eighth (七搶一, 8).

Stack the pong ladder deliberately ADVANCED

The structure tai compound: All Pongs 4, three concealed pongs 2, four concealed pongs 5, five 8 — and a half flush adds 4, full flush 8. A pong-heavy deal in one suit is the classic big-hand route: 碰碰胡 + 混一色 + a wind or dragon pong reaches 9+ tai before the win-context tai even land. Commit early, claim pongs freely (concealed-pong tiers only count what you did NOT claim), and keep the pair simple.

Fold when two exposed melds tell one story and you are far from ready INTERMEDIATE

Two or more exposed pongs in one suit, or exposed wind/dragon pongs, mean a hand that will hurt. If you are still four or more tiles from ready, stop building: your remaining draws are unlikely to win the race, and every loose discard risks paying base + their whole tai count alone.

Discard what the dangerous player already discarded INTERMEDIATE

The safest tile against a threatening opponent is a copy of one they threw away themselves — a hand that was waiting on it would normally have won on it already. Next safest: the fourth copy of anything with three already visible between discards and melds — no set can be completed with it.

Remember what folding can and cannot save ADVANCED

Perfect defence dodges only the discard win: a self-draw collects from all three of you no matter how safely you played. So against a big visible hand, safe discards are half the job — the other half is denying draws: claim tiles you would otherwise pass to break their turn rhythm, and shorten the hand toward the wall when you cannot win it.

Deny a streaking dealer, even at a cost ADVANCED

A dealer who wins deals again, and every repeat adds 2 tai (連莊) to all their future wins — the dealer plays for raised stakes both ways, paying extra when they lose. Two things follow: break the streak even with a cheap win, and when you ARE ready, prefer the wait the dealer is likely to feed — a win off the dealer collects their raised leg.

Early middle-tile discards signal a special hand INTERMEDIATE

A player throwing 4s, 5s and 6s in the opening turns is not building ordinary sequences — expect a one-suit hand, a pong hand, or terminals. Watch which suit they are NOT discarding: that is the suit to stop feeding.

Two suits in someone's discards means the third is theirs INTERMEDIATE

Heavy discards from dots and characters with nothing from bamboo is a bamboo lean — semi-pure or pure. From that point, bamboo tiles and honors are their winning tiles; hold them or spend them very early, never late.